Nnfuturevision scenarios for the world in 2040 pdf

Development of scenarios to 2030 and 2050 this policy brief summarises the simulation results of three models used to track the development of climate policy scenarios in the cecilia2050 project. The world in 2050 report was published in february 2017. Vision 2040 s regional growth strategy is a preferred pattern for accommodating residential and employment growth. Mp scenarios map out what if questions tool for debate especially with the assumption that large parts of work will be automated would in the positive scenario imply. Will relentless consumerism end up destroying our planet, or can science. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry deloitte.

Thinking about the future is a way to understand choices and possible pathways in the present. In this volatile era, with the world changing rapidly, people are more curious than ever to know what lies ahead. The first future envisages a society transformed by science and technology, where geoengineering has fixed climate change and nanotechnology has transformed manufacturing. But a client asked me to paint a picture of what the big trends tell us about 2030. Oliver freeman in this volatile era where the world changes at such a rapid rate, people are more anxious than ever about what lies ahead. We imagine our futures, but we live in the present. Wikimedia commonsberlin what would a future breakup of the european union look like. Worldfamous city of experiences stockholm is an international metropolis with a rich assortment of museums, concerts, theatres, movie theatres, nightlife, sports, galleries and amusement parks. The three scenarios have very different rates of growth, with volatility of course much less than history. Particular attention will be given to the upgrading of existing campus infrastructure where needed, pedestrian and vehicular circulation, parking, consolidation of student services. Futurevision books about current and future trends by. The cumulative impact of such a decline would be a gdp per head of some 20% lower than could otherwise be expected. It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study e.

Future oil demand scenarios weforum world economic forum. This urgency is reflected in the mission statement of the strategic plan for biodiversity 201120206 and the 20 aichi biodiversity targets. The world will continue to demand more and more energy in the next years. The second and third scenarios high and low liquids demand were developed by adjusting consumer. Scenario building can be described as a story which is based on the analysis and understanding of current and historic trends and events. The development of sets of narrative scenarios helps to identify possible pathways towards a vision of the future. Global energy demand will keep world burning fossil fuels.

Slowing global growth, limited income convergence and rising fiscal pressures this is the outlook for the world economy in the new oecd longterm baseline projection. Assessing the internal and external environment usa online. Introduction simulations of various policy scenarios for the world economy, especially in the context of climate. They help us to make crucial choices in uncertain times as we grapple with tough energy and environmental issues. Projections in longterm scenarios, oecd economics department working papers, no. By offering four possible scenarios for the world in 2040, we recognize that the decisions people make today will have a profound impact on the way our companies, governments, societies and institutions operate in the future. A leaked plan by the german armed forces looks at six potential scenarios which it says are plausible by 2040, including three that picture varying levels of fragmentation of the 28member bloc. Volume i of this report provides a foundation for the plan through inventories of. World energy scenarios 10 key messages 1 energy system complexity will increase by 2050. How will germany look like in 2030 and how competitive will german companies be in the future.

Preface in the rtd field of egovernment vinnova contributes. The world gas market in 2030 development scenarios. Digital transformation will bring comprehensive changes for companies. Visioning future scenarios practical agronomists and other applied specialists in agriculture become experts in their narrow disciplines through academic courses and research for advanced degrees. This would represent 10% of the world s population aged 1579 by 2040, compared to 4% in 2012. Scenarios for the world in 2040 so far concerning the publication weve got futurevision. With exploration of the presalt layer reserves, the country is preparing for an unprecedented jump in oil production.

Inequality increases in a wealthier and healthier world. At the request of our members we have focused these scenarios on helping energy leaders to grapple with the new realities of a disruptive landscape of. These drivers provide the broader context for determining global energy pathways to 2040. Four scenarios for longterm planning and strategy by ross dawson recently i did the opening keynote to the top executive team of a major organization at their strategy offsite. This latest set of scenario narratives maintains the existing scenario framework and describes three potential pathways for energy system transition to 2040. The shell scenarios team brings together experts from an array of disciplines to understand versions of the future. We analysed six city archetypes to better understand the changing world and created scenarios for how individual cities might evolve and become more efficient. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry. As a part of this comprehensive master plan, a facilities plan chapter has been developed to address the needs of all academic and support services. While we think that the discussion of long term trends in the report remains of interest, it does not take account of major events since that date, including in particular the recent global covid19 pandemic. The papers are produced in the context of the work carried out on the two regular oecd titles, oecd economic outlook and going for.

This question lies at the heart of shell scenarios work. A world of fear fantastic scenarios on how the world could look like in 2040. Richard watson born 1961 is an english author, lecturer and futurist known for his 2007 book future files. Feb 24, 2012 join us on our journey into the year 2050. The demographics are, therefore, broadly representative of a poor world which needs to find, perhaps, 100 million new jobs every year to meet the potential demand. Scenarios for the world in 2040 feedback people are yet to however eventually left their particular writeup on the sport, or you cannot see clearly nevertheless. Politicaleconomic turmoil future despair governments did not anticipate the impacts of artificial general intelligence and had no strategies in place as unemployment exploded in the 2030s leaving the world of 2050 in political turmoil.

German strategic document examines possible future scenarios. Iea world energy outlook 2020 can affect climate change in. Read book futurevision scenarios for the world in 2040 free online. By 2040, according to key projections, the global annual sales of liion batteries increase to around 4 twh in the high, 2 twh in the moderate and 0. Vision 2040 is a reality for ugandas strategic plans. Overall, the global system will still be dependent on oil and natural gas for the majority of the energy required to fuel economic. Also, even in the optimistic normative sceneries, the share of renewable energy will not reach 50 % by 2040. The mission of transform world 2020 urgently calls the church to consider the critical challenges of our time. The statoil scenario also posits that cost improvements. For instance, the traditional paradigm that has underlined and has shaped german and austrian education is the assumption that the homogeneity of learners in a group best facilitates individual learning sliwka, 2010, p.

World renewable energy consumption the world counts. For almost half a century, shell scenarios have helped us to gain a deeper understanding of global developments and the world s energy supply, use and needs. Visioning for the 1 regions future volume ii of the plan report documents the visioning and scenario planning process used. The national strategy for growth and reduction of poverty nsgrp ii or mkukuta ii is an organizing framework to rally national efforts in accelerating povertyreducing growth. Despite the multiplicity of scenarios covered in this report that may play out over the next 20 years, and the vast array of different farm business models both now and in the future, three common denominators are identified that will define the successful farm enterprises of 2040. Understanding and preparing for a range of new scenarios is paramount for higher education institutions across the globe. The 2015 paris climate agreement saw world leaders. Like its predecessor mkukuta i, the strategy puts emphasis.

Even in a best case situation, less than half of the world s energy will come from green, renewable sources. The royal directives of his majesty sultan qaboos bin said stipulate that the future vision oman 2040 will be thoroughly developed and precisely formulated in the light of wide community consensus and participation of the different social groups, so that the vision is fully integrated into the economic and social realities and objectively orientated towards the future foresight. But the shift from homogeneity students getting the. Examination of scenarios to 2040 using itedd 2 the first scenario is the eias international energy outlook 2016 ieo2016 reference case projections. World vision ugandas mission and vision are derived from world vision international mission and vision. How can we make the global future better by caring about it now. Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies this paper identi. Shell longterm energy scenarios shell energy scenarios to 2050. Commission des affaires economiques et commission du developpement durable. Liion batteries for mobility and stationary storage. Futurevision describes four alternative scenarios for how the world might look in 2040 and provides a methodology for dealing with change. Fulfilling this role as experts, they often follow careers in research, education, public sector extension, or private advising where they.

Urbanization prospects study prepared by the united. Aqueduct projected water stress country rankings world. Only those who think about alternatives can devise robust strategies. A transformed world to stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact.

The figure shows world economic growth, with history running from 1980. Three years ago, we made public our shell energy scenarios to 2050. Future scenarios and future directions for education and technology article pdf available in journal of computer assisted learning 261. Which of our four scenarios ends up becoming reality or partial reality is still anyones guess. Can rapid global growth be reconciled with moving to a low carbon economy. Wvu started operations in 1986 as a relief organization responding to the needs of the victims of 1981 1986 guerrilla war, which affected most parts of the central region of uganda. In this volatile era, with the world changing rapidly, people are more c. New social risks may be perceived in multiethnic societies when their conflicts are not managed properly or the native population, as well as the. Enerfuture world energy scenarios to 2040 enerdata.

Whereas the sustainable development scenario projects global oil demand dropping to 63 million barrels a day in 2040 more than a third below todays level the 1. It is designed to minimize environmental impacts, support economic prosperity, improve mobility, and make efficient use of existing infrastructure. Future use and development through 2040 c orid s c ome rc ial d neighborhood center office low intensity tow nc et r open spaces a j t ra d it o nl n e ghb d s 2015 research land use changes new city plans, policies conduct market studies consult stakeholders s tudy n es ho ig,ral c. Leveraging the poles model, we offer expert foresight for strategicbusiness planning and policy making. Summary we first looked at this issue in a september 2006 report, which suggested that halting and eventually reversing the growth of global carbon emissions, although challenging, should be both technologically feasible and economically affordable.

Or can science and technology allow us to innovate our way out of trouble. This technical note utilized a spatial aggregation methodology to bring subcatchment scale aqueduct water stress projections up to the country scale, fulfilling this need. The world in 2050 future study presented by frank appel. In the conventional development scenario analyzed in this report, global per capita income increases by. Will relentless consumerism end up destroying our planet.

The brazilian oil and gas industry finds itself at a unique point in its history. The nuclear fuel report global scenarios for demand and supply availability 2019 2040. This corresponds to about 110, 55 and 15 operational gigafactories in each scenario, respectively, assuming 35 gwh annual production capacity for each gigafactory. Pdf user scenarios 2020 a worldwide wireless future. The team has developed the world energy model wem to explore how energy demand is evolving in different countries and sectors.

Scenarios for the world economy to 2060 extends the usual shortrun horizon of. Selected factors affecting health for most world populations in the first two stages of the health transition. The world of energy is being reshaped by a set of fundamental drivers, which we term the grand transition. Read the scenarios and reflect on the future scenarios presented in futurevision and in global trends 2040. More concretely, technology, climate change, globalisation, and demography are seen as key megatrends within the context of the world of work and are projected to play a defining role in the upcoming years. Unless emissions are rapidly reduced, temperatures could rise 1. Futurevision describes four alternative scenarios for how the world might look in 2040 and provides a methodology for dealing with change the first future envisages a society transformed by science and technology, where geoengineering has fixed climate change and nanotechnology has transformed manufacturing. The netherlands of 2040 develops four scenarios to increase our. We trust that gods people all over the world will respond to each challenge through informed, cohesive, prayerful action leading to a godly, spiritled movement in the spheres of. We use the world gas model wgm, a multiperiod strategic representation of the global natural gas. Labeled strategic perspective 2040, the 129page report by the federal armed forces. The emerging and developing countries which accounted for 20 % of the worlds wealth in. In the order of 2 bn middle class people will be living in modest affluence by 2020, around 500 million of them in the rich world and rest elsewhere.

Projected scores are included for 167 countries under the businessasusual, pessimistic, and optimistic scenarios for the years 2020, 2030, and 2040. Oct 24, 2012 futurevision describes four alternative scenarios for how the world might look in 2040 and provides a methodology for dealing with change the first future envisages a society transformed by science and technology, where geoengineering has fixed climate change and nanotechnology has transformed manufacturing. I dont usually play the futurist game im more of a presentist, looking at the data we have right now on fastmoving megatrends that shape the world today. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry 7 trends four trends were identified as determinant for the oil and gas industry when the years that separate us from 2040 are analyzed.

Energy information administration global transportation energy consumption. Future worktechnology global scenarios 2050 and national. The oecd economic policy papers series is designed to make available selected studies on structural and macroeconomic policy issues of current interest. The world gas market in 2030 development scenarios using the world gas model abstract in this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry through 2030. Workforce of the future part 1 to be prepared for the future, you have to understand it. Together the models represent a broad methodological spectrum of economic environmental modelling. Purchase a copy of the report from the world nuclear association shop the 19th edition of the world nuclear associations biennial report on. The future of the global environment rivm repository.

Here, events of international distinction are held everything from the tour premieres of worldfamous artists to the champions league final. Our thanks go to shell colleagues and the many external experts who have contributed to the development of these shell energy scenarios. Jan 17, 2018 digital transformation will bring comprehensive changes for companies. Work 2040, scenarios for the future of work demos helsinki. If we could foresee the fine details we would not be doing this exercise, as our fortunes would be made. It includes a consistent description of possible future situations. Shell energy scenarios shell longterm energy scenarios to. It is a second in series of results based national strategy. Vision 2040 is a reality for ugandas strategic plans by john vianney ahumuza uganda has adopted a series of national development programmes aimed at transforming the economy. Four future scenarios for 2040 my life between realities less is more to me one for all, all for one our circular community. World population has more than doubled since 1950 and is set. Future impacts, cornelia daheim scenario illustrations.

Scenarios are said to be ideal for preparing for substantial changes by navigating through various potential events and determining different ways to respond to the scenarios. The rise in emissions slows but, with no peak before 2040, the world falls far short of shared sustainability goals. Our workforce of the future study looks at four possible scenarios for the future world of work. The scenarios developed with renowned experts are based on observations of the most important influencing factors, from business and consumption patterns to technological developments and climate change, while taking into consideration their probable effect on our behavior and our future. As a fundamental basis and reflector point for the scenarios, the world wireless research forum wwrf vision for 2020. More recently, after world war ii, dutch cities faced a difficult time. How will germany look like in 2030 and how competitive will german companies be. Scenarios for the world economy to 2060 policy paper, 2018 pdf. The usaeujapan triad will no longer dominate the world, even if the united states preserve their leadership.

Factsheet why international energy agency scenarios should not be misinterpreted as forecasts february 2017 1 the international energy agencys annual energy report, the world energy outlook weo, is a leading source for medium to longterm energy market modelling, which is widely used as an authoritative source by politicians. How much energy will the world use in the future, and what forms will it take. As highlighted in the ilo inception report 2017c, understanding how these. The enerdata global energy forecasting team just released the 2018 edition of its 2040 world energy scenarios.